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Non-Farm Payroll Matrix - including rates, flows & macro

Non-Farm Payroll Matrix - including rates, flows & macro

We all keep hearing it, and boiiii, it does get tiresome. Almost every FOMC and the latest Jackson Hole speech. So we, the central banks, and the rest of the world are now at the mercy of "data-dependent." Is it a crime to ask: How reliable is the

By Romano Sep 1, 2023

PMI, Jackson Hole, Stagflation & BRICS

PMI, Jackson Hole, Stagflation & BRICS

Some people argue that history is just a sequence of unrelated events, one after the other. Similarly, much of the financial market reporting tends to be a stream of individual events, often linked together in a misleading way. There's a phrase called "post hoc ergo propter hoc&

By Romano Aug 25, 2023

USDJPY Carry Trade Pressure

USDJPY Carry Trade Pressure

This summer, quiet markets favored the carry trade. Popular funding currencies here are still the JPY and the CNY. The carry trade involves borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-interest currency to profit from interest rate differential and exchange rate movements. Traders often use JPY and CNY as funding currencies

By Romano Aug 24, 2023

Dramatic Slide in Treasuries Shakes the FX Market (fixed)

By Romano Aug 21, 2023

Monthly report - Recession Bells & Commodity Shocks: Is the Soft Landing Just a Hoax?

Monthly report - Recession Bells & Commodity Shocks: Is the Soft Landing Just a Hoax?

Central banks had a big say in how the economies and financial markets operate for the last year and a half. After a long stretch of loose monetary policy, politicians were shocked by inflation not being transitory, and politicians suddenly started pointing fingers at the central banks. Central banks worldwide

By Romano Aug 5, 2023

Bank of Japan - YCC tweaks with greater flexibility

Bank of Japan - YCC tweaks with greater flexibility

The dollar has been gaining strength against some other major currencies, partly due to positive economic data from the US and partly due to some weakness in the eurozone, after the European Central Bank meeting yesterday. However, one cause that has capped the dollar's upside is the lower

By Romano Jul 28, 2023

FX update

FX update

The world, or at least the financial world, has its eyes on China yet again. The Chinese economy hasn't been living up to investors' expectations. China's top officials are proposing to introduce some measures to reverse the economic downturn. This isn't out of

By Romano Jul 26, 2023

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.