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Tactical Hedging

Tactical Hedging

The VIX has been trending down since the start of 2023, dropping by more than 40% from 22.75 on January 3 to 12.68 on September 14, at the time of writing this. That's mainly due to encouraging economic news from the U.S. and increasing optimism

By Romano Sep 21, 2023

VIX - Volatility Forecast Model

VIX - Volatility Forecast Model

The VIX, or the CBOE Volatility Index, is a financial indicator that tries to measure how much the stock market is expected to move in the near future, specifically over the next 30 days. It focuses on the S&P500, one of the stock market indexes that includes 500

By Romano Sep 12, 2023

The Saudi Oil Squeeze vs. Iran Booming Oil Exports

The Saudi Oil Squeeze vs. Iran Booming Oil Exports

Saudi extends cuts. The oil market, yes, here we go again. In my opinion, trading the oil market is difficult. The oil market is a complex dynamic system influenced by many factors. One of the main benchmarks for oil prices is ICE Brent, a blend of crude oil from the

By Romano Sep 7, 2023

The Carry Trade and USDJPY: What You Need to Know

The Carry Trade and USDJPY: What You Need to Know

USDJPY forecast upgrade to 150 & 155 in 3-6 months, respectively. If you're unfamiliar with forex terms "base" and "quote," this forecast means the US dollar will go up against the yen. Higher for Longer The main reason for this bullish view on the

By Romano Sep 5, 2023

Russia Prolongs Oil Export Restrictions

Russia Prolongs Oil Export Restrictions

On August 31, ICE Brent oil prices remained strong and showed an uptick the following morning. ICE Brent is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil purchases worldwide. This market behavior was a response to an announcement from Russia

By Romano Sep 5, 2023

Non-Farm Payroll Matrix - including rates, flows & macro

Non-Farm Payroll Matrix - including rates, flows & macro

We all keep hearing it, and boiiii, it does get tiresome. Almost every FOMC and the latest Jackson Hole speech. So we, the central banks, and the rest of the world are now at the mercy of "data-dependent." Is it a crime to ask: How reliable is the

By Romano Sep 1, 2023

PMI, Jackson Hole, Stagflation & BRICS

PMI, Jackson Hole, Stagflation & BRICS

Some people argue that history is just a sequence of unrelated events, one after the other. Similarly, much of the financial market reporting tends to be a stream of individual events, often linked together in a misleading way. There's a phrase called "post hoc ergo propter hoc&

By Romano Aug 25, 2023

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.