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Mortgage application data indicates fewer people are applying for mortgages, even though "mortgage rates" have fallen recently. That should serve as a warning to the Federal Reserve that its program of lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy may not work as well as it has in the

The relief was felt yesterday because the market had been becoming increasingly overbought in the past few weeks. The rise in the S&P futures despite the rise in US 10yr rates suggests that the market is becoming overbought. That is because rising rates typically indicate a tightening of

The lower-than-expected inflation rate reported yesterday boosted asset prices across the board, with huge gains seen in sectors underperforming in recent weeks. In the financial markets, a lower-than-expected inflation rate often leads to a rally in asset prices. That is because investors feel that lower inflation will lead to higher

It seems that market participants were prematurely bearish in anticipation of the FOMC. A similar situation like in June. The market was potentially pricing in a worst-case scenario, and a 75bps would be "dovish" compared to the hypothetical 100bps hike. It caught many market participants off-guard, and the

With options expiration in the rearview mirror, there are few critical events before the end-of-month rebalance. When investors rebalance, they readjust their portfolio weightings to put them back in line with their desired asset allocation. Given the outperformance of equities markets over fixed income MTD, rebalancing is probably a minor

With another hotter-than-expected CPI inflation reading last week, On July 15th, it seemed that a market sell-off similar to June's was possible. However, Fed Governor Waller's suggestion that 75 basis points were more plausible than 100 basis points acted as a catalyst for dealers to bring