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Handcuffed perpetual optimism

Handcuffed perpetual optimism

The Trump tariff "step-downs" may have taken the edge off of the worst-case trade war scenarios. Between the Treasury Bessent floating interventionist tools (including the "not-so-subtle nod to buybacks) and Waller softening up the Federal Reserve tone, there's a clear effort to engineer a sentiment

By Romano Apr 21, 2025

Fed unwilling to mop up the consequences of Trump tariffs

Fed unwilling to mop up the consequences of Trump tariffs

Fed Chair Powell is playing the adult and reminding the public that tariffs aren't just headlines. Powell is flagging the obvious, yet overlooked by many. Tariffs are inflationary. They act like a tax on imports, driving up prices for consumers, which feeds into the CPI. At the same

By Romano Apr 17, 2025

Exceptional No More: The U.S. Lost Its Halo

Exceptional No More: The U.S. Lost Its Halo

For much of the 20th and 21st centuries, the United States has enjoyed a unique position of financial dominance over the rest of the world. This is what's called "U.S. exceptionalism," implied by the phrase itself, but not only superior economic performance, but also structural

By Romano Apr 16, 2025

Political Circuit Breaker

Political Circuit Breaker

Trump's surprise move on April 6th to grant a 90-day tariff reprieve for trading partners facing elevated tariffs triggered a sharp relief rally across risk assets. Trump Puts 90-Day Pause on Higher Tariffs, But Hikes China RatesPresident Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs that hit

By Romano Apr 13, 2025

Market Pullback Playbook - April 6th, 2025

Market Pullback Playbook - April 6th, 2025

The market absolutely collapsed in the past 30 days. I don't have to do a recap on this. I assume you know what happened. But just a quick rundown, anyway. President Trump’s new tariff announcement was more aggressive than expected, with headline rates jumping as high as

By Romano Apr 6, 2025

Bitcoin mining post presidential elections

Bitcoin mining post presidential elections

November 2024 was an unforgettable month for Bitcoin reaching breathtaking all-time highs above $90,000. This unprecedented high was associated with the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, whose outcome fueled optimism within the financial markets. Investors speculated that the newly elected administration would adopt a more favorable stance

By Romano Dec 3, 2024

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

The S&P 500 has undoubtedly been a source of long-term wealth. Over the past four decades, asset prices experienced one of the most significant growth periods in financial history. More than 90% of the price appreciation in traditional equity-bond portfolios over the last 90 years occurred between 1984

By Romano Oct 24, 2024

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.