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An Engineered Recession? - March 10th, 2025

An Engineered Recession? - March 10th, 2025

The latest ISM data signals stagflation and adds to the growth narrative, putting pressure on market sentiment. Trump's latest tariff-related decisions/actions further intensified concerns. Meanwhile, there's a risk of a government shutdown (as far as I know). Recent ISM data shows manufacturing stagnation (+0.1%

By Romano Mar 10, 2025

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

The S&P 500 has undoubtedly been a source of long-term wealth. Over the past four decades, asset prices experienced one of the most significant growth periods in financial history. More than 90% of the price appreciation in traditional equity-bond portfolios over the last 90 years occurred between 1984

By Romano Oct 24, 2024

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

First of all, before looking at the markets, let's go over what happened over the weekend. Over the weekend, during a bustling rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump faced a near-fatal shot. A shooter, concealed on a nearby rooftop, targeted Trump. A gunshot echoed, and a bullet grazed

By Romano Jul 18, 2024

Global equity market newsletter - 24-04-2024

Global equity market newsletter - 24-04-2024

Yesterday, the S-word was mentioned—yes, "Stagflation." The economy isn't growing as much as it should, but prices are still going up, which is not the best combination. The latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports show warning signs, especially in manufacturing. Manufacturing is having a

By Romano Apr 25, 2024

2024 contrarian trade: Forget Gamma; V for Long Vega

2024 contrarian trade: Forget Gamma; V for Long Vega

Over the past two years, traders have had numerous opportunities to make profitable trades. In 2022, many traders made significant profits by short-selling tech stocks, which was unexpected in 2021. However, in 2023, the market took a complete 180-degree turn, reversing course to the upside, causing bearish traders who had

By Romano Jan 2, 2024

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.