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Fed unwilling to mop up the consequences of Trump tariffs

Fed Chair Powell is playing the adult and reminding the public that tariffs aren't just headlines. Powell is flagging the obvious, yet overlooked by many. Tariffs are inflationary. They act like a tax on imports, driving up prices for consumers, which feeds into the CPI. At the same

Exceptional No More: The U.S. Lost Its Halo

For much of the 20th and 21st centuries, the United States has enjoyed a unique position of financial dominance over the rest of the world. This is what's called "U.S. exceptionalism," implied by the phrase itself, but not only superior economic performance, but also structural

Political Circuit Breaker

Trump's surprise move on April 6th to grant a 90-day tariff reprieve for trading partners facing elevated tariffs triggered a sharp relief rally across risk assets. Trump Puts 90-Day Pause on Higher Tariffs, But Hikes China RatesPresident Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs that hit

Market Pullback Playbook - April 6th, 2025

The market absolutely collapsed in the past 30 days. I don't have to do a recap on this. I assume you know what happened. But just a quick rundown, anyway. President Trump’s new tariff announcement was more aggressive than expected, with headline rates jumping as high as

An Engineered Recession? - March 10th, 2025

The latest ISM data signals stagflation and adds to the growth narrative, putting pressure on market sentiment. Trump's latest tariff-related decisions/actions further intensified concerns. Meanwhile, there's a risk of a government shutdown (as far as I know). Recent ISM data shows manufacturing stagnation (+0.1%

Why I am investing in Meta

Many still associate Meta exclusively with Facebook. I used to be one of those people until yesterday. Yesterday, I was at the dentist but decided to buy META on my phone when I accidentally bought 100x more shares than I was supposed to. This was needed for me to see

Bitcoin mining post presidential elections

November 2024 was an unforgettable month for Bitcoin reaching breathtaking all-time highs above $90,000. This unprecedented high was associated with the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, whose outcome fueled optimism within the financial markets. Investors speculated that the newly elected administration would adopt a more favorable stance

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

The S&P 500 has undoubtedly been a source of long-term wealth. Over the past four decades, asset prices experienced one of the most significant growth periods in financial history. More than 90% of the price appreciation in traditional equity-bond portfolios over the last 90 years occurred between 1984

ApeX Omni 45% APY Reward Maxxing Strategy (Round 3)

Apex Omni extends its deposit campaign boost, offering 45% APY on effective USDT deposits. However, some requirements must be kept in mind. This post is meant to help you optimize your reward with capital efficiency. Apex Omni deposit campaign running from October 17th till November 7 * Total Prize Pool: 20,

ApeX Omni 35% APY Reward Maxxing Strategy

ApeX Omni extends its deposit campaign boost, offering 35% APY on effective USDT deposits. Now, there are some requirements we need to keep in mind. This post is meant to help you optimize your reward with capital efficiency. Sign up to ApeX DEX for a lifetime trading fee discount: https:

The Australian Dollar - Iron Ore and China

The Australian Dollar seems to be edging higher over the next few quarters. By the end of 2024, we could see AUD/USD hovering around 0.69 and perhaps 0.72 somewhere, most likely late in 2025. But it will be a long road that takes time. One of the

The largest carry trade & unwind the world has ever... rewind?!

Let me start by acknowledging that bad is bad. Last week, there was a lot of panic in the market, and now the rates market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in multiple meetings this year. The sentiment has shifted from expecting rates to go

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

First of all, before looking at the markets, let's go over what happened over the weekend. Over the weekend, during a bustling rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump faced a near-fatal shot. A shooter, concealed on a nearby rooftop, targeted Trump. A gunshot echoed, and a bullet grazed

Global equity market newsletter - 24-04-2024

Yesterday, the S-word was mentioned—yes, "Stagflation." The economy isn't growing as much as it should, but prices are still going up, which is not the best combination. The latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports show warning signs, especially in manufacturing. Manufacturing is having a

The BTFP Liquidity Drain

Before moving on to crypto, let's start with the situation in the Middle East, especially the Red Sea crisis, which is getting more tense every day. Imagine solving a water shortage by dumping more buckets into the mix when there's a tank leak. That's

Bitcoin halving 2024 - the Year of the Dragon

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently been launched in the market. They offer investors an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin's price without having to buy and store them in their own wallets or manage the associated security risks. With the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, more investors, including individuals with

2024 contrarian trade: Forget Gamma; V for Long Vega

Over the past two years, traders have had numerous opportunities to make profitable trades. In 2022, many traders made significant profits by short-selling tech stocks, which was unexpected in 2021. However, in 2023, the market took a complete 180-degree turn, reversing course to the upside, causing bearish traders who had

$350 Billion Stealth Injection into the financial system

Why did everything pump? Seasonality, year-to-end rally, Bitcoin spot ETF, or was it $350 Billion injected into the financial system? There were several factors that contributed to the November rally in the stock market. * These included unprecedented buying from CTAs * massive buybacks by corporations exceeding $5 billion * extreme dealer gamma

🔥 Ride into the Year-End

Today is the big day, boys. Yes, the big day! Let's forget about economics for one moment because Spotify is bussin with its much-awaited annual "Wrapped" feature. Yes, it's that time of the year when we all discover the artists who provided the soundtrack

Walmart stock analysis FY23 - FY26

After Walmart shared its earnings for the third quarter, its stock dropped more than 8%. That's a lot compared to the SPX500. Investors were hoping for better news for the financial year of 2023 (FY23), but Walmart's forecast was disappointing and not what everyone was expecting.

🔥 The year-to-end crypto Santa rally?

The recent US CPI inflation data came in lower than expected and sparked a rally across the board. The CPI inflation data figures showed a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in consumer prices, leading to adjustments in expectations for future Federal Reserve Policy rates. October's CPI inflation was unchanged from the

🔥 Geopolitical Tension, War & the Financial Markets

The recent developments over the past few days have reflected a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, and market dynamics. The tensions in the Middle East's geopolitical chessboard escalated. There is uncertainty in the global economic and market outlook due to factors such as the conflict between Israel and

From Hawk to Dove? Just like that?

Following the September job figures, which weren't as positive as expected, there was immediate apprehension in the markets about a potential rise in the Federal Reserve's Then, last Friday, the Non-farm payroll came out, a 6 sigma beat above expectations. Initially, there was a panic reaction

Tactical Hedging

The VIX has been trending down since the start of 2023, dropping by more than 40% from 22.75 on January 3 to 12.68 on September 14, at the time of writing this. That's mainly due to encouraging economic news from the U.S. and increasing optimism

VIX - Volatility Forecast Model

The VIX, or the CBOE Volatility Index, is a financial indicator that tries to measure how much the stock market is expected to move in the near future, specifically over the next 30 days. It focuses on the S&P500, one of the stock market indexes that includes 500

The Saudi Oil Squeeze vs. Iran Booming Oil Exports

Saudi extends cuts. The oil market, yes, here we go again. In my opinion, trading the oil market is difficult. The oil market is a complex dynamic system influenced by many factors. One of the main benchmarks for oil prices is ICE Brent, a blend of crude oil from the

The Carry Trade and USDJPY: What You Need to Know

USDJPY forecast upgrade to 150 & 155 in 3-6 months, respectively. If you're unfamiliar with forex terms "base" and "quote," this forecast means the US dollar will go up against the yen. Higher for Longer The main reason for this bullish view on the

Russia Prolongs Oil Export Restrictions

On August 31, ICE Brent oil prices remained strong and showed an uptick the following morning. ICE Brent is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil purchases worldwide. This market behavior was a response to an announcement from Russia

Non-Farm Payroll Matrix - including rates, flows & macro

We all keep hearing it, and boiiii, it does get tiresome. Almost every FOMC and the latest Jackson Hole speech. So we, the central banks, and the rest of the world are now at the mercy of "data-dependent." Is it a crime to ask: How reliable is the

PMI, Jackson Hole, Stagflation & BRICS

Some people argue that history is just a sequence of unrelated events, one after the other. Similarly, much of the financial market reporting tends to be a stream of individual events, often linked together in a misleading way. There's a phrase called "post hoc ergo propter hoc&

USDJPY Carry Trade Pressure

This summer, quiet markets favored the carry trade. Popular funding currencies here are still the JPY and the CNY. The carry trade involves borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-interest currency to profit from interest rate differential and exchange rate movements. Traders often use JPY and CNY as funding currencies

Dramatic Slide in Treasuries Shakes the FX Market (fixed)

Monthly report - Recession Bells & Commodity Shocks: Is the Soft Landing Just a Hoax?

Central banks had a big say in how the economies and financial markets operate for the last year and a half. After a long stretch of loose monetary policy, politicians were shocked by inflation not being transitory, and politicians suddenly started pointing fingers at the central banks. Central banks worldwide

Bank of Japan - YCC tweaks with greater flexibility

The dollar has been gaining strength against some other major currencies, partly due to positive economic data from the US and partly due to some weakness in the eurozone, after the European Central Bank meeting yesterday. However, one cause that has capped the dollar's upside is the lower

FX update

The world, or at least the financial world, has its eyes on China yet again. The Chinese economy hasn't been living up to investors' expectations. China's top officials are proposing to introduce some measures to reverse the economic downturn. This isn't out of

Dollar DXY update

Last week, the story was about the US Federal Reserve seeming more cautious about raising interest rates than people expected, which was dovish. If you didn't read the previous note of Friday, July 14, please do 🚨 Forex US Dollar Update DXYYesterday (Thursday) was a big day for money

Ponzi Financing

The University of Michigan released a survey last Friday with the news that's good for the economy, yet sent some fear through the markets but absorbed by the AI speculation pretty quickly. Surprisingly, 1-year inflation expectations went against analyst predictions and increased by one tick to 3.4%

🚨 Forex US Dollar Update DXY

Yesterday (Thursday) was a big day for money markets. The US dollar took a bit of a hit as it dropped below the 100 mark on the DXY index. It wasn’t just the DXY that was affected. Many other currency pairs also experienced some significant shifts, hitting certain “key

Inflation Under Control: Now What? SPX500 ATH EOY? 🚨

The NATO meeting didn't meet the expectations of most participants, except maybe Sweden. Ukraine was disappointed by the lack of a clear timeline for its membership application, even though NATO allies agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on the F16 fighter yet. However, some NATO members seemed annoyed by

Ripple Ruling Resonates: XRP, Bitcoin, Related Stocks & Altcoins Enjoy Green Shots 🚀

The news broke out about the court ruling affecting the status of Ripple's XRP token, a cryptocurrency used for cross-border payments. The ruling states that XRP is considered a security and subject to federal regulations when sold to institutional investors like hedge funds or banks. But here'

CPI Scenarios | NASDAQ REBALANCE | Bet Big on the Bank Of Japan🚨

So, right now, the Federal Reserve Fund futures (at the time of writing) are showing that there's over a 90% chance of the Fed raising rates by 0.25% on July 26. Some high odds. Let's discuss how the SPX500 might react to the monthly Core

FX: Dollar downtrend pause & EURUSD forecast

Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has been losing strength against other significant currencies. This is primarily due to investors' belief that the Federal Reserve will need to lower interest rates to stimulate the sluggish U.S. economy or provide it with some form of support. Investors

Uncovering Crypto Trends - Monthly On-chain & Market Analysis

This post will provide an overview of Bitcoin & ethereum, the two largest and most liquid digital assets by market capitalization. Covering a combination of on-chain data derived and data sourced from these assets' market dynamics, network activity, user behavior, and valuation metrics platforms and exchanges to analyze these

Wheat Prices Spiked as Russia's Failed Coup Attempt Created Uncertainty

The recent political crisis in Russia triggered by Wagner's failed coup attempt has raised concerns about the stability of the world's largest wheat exporter. Russia accounts for 20% of global exports, mainly to the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Wheat prices surged in response to the

FX Markets - central bank decisions

The markets are eagerly anticipating today's central bank decisions. With the UK, Norway & Switzerland assessing whether to adopt a 25bps or 50bps hike in policy rates, investors are closely watching if policymakers will opt for a more conservative or aggressive approach. Another central bank that will be

Buyback Blackout Window & Crude oil

Companies are gradually entering the buyback blackout window phase. Some larger market players in the bidding war may decide to hold back or reduce their bids. Now, you may wonder what the "buyback blackout window" is or means. To explain it simply, the "buyback blackout window"

The Hinman Documents and Ripple's Dispute with the SEC - June 2023

In 2020, the SEC and Ripple engaged in a legal dispute concerning the classification of XRP, a digital currency that functions on the Ripple network. The SEC claims that XRP is a security and that Ripple illegally sold it. At the same time, Ripple argues that XRP is a commodity

FOMC June 14 2023

So, you remember that scary inflation beast we've been dealing with? That's been making shit more expensive and scaring investors out of the market. It looks like it's finally chilling the fuck down. However, market participants do keep their eyes on it, and rightfully

AI-Driven Biotech Revolution

In recent times, there have been remarkable advancements in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer's disease is a neurodegenerative condition that's associated with a gradual decline in cognitive function, memory, and ability to carry out daily activities. It's one of the most

Behind the Debt Limit Curtain: The Deal That Redefines America's Fiscal Landscape

When President Biden & House Speaker McCarthy sat down to negotiate, the US had already reached its debt limit of a whopping $31.4 trillion. Yeah, mfers that's trillions with a "t". The US government was in a tight spot and wasn't allowed to

Debt Ceiling Optimism Or Just 0-DTE Degeneracy

Bloomberg reported, "US Stocks Climb on Debt Deal Hopes," claiming that worries over the debt ceiling started to fade away. In case you're wondering what the "debt ceiling" is, it's like the country's credit card limit. More info about the

Strategize: Prepare For A Last Rate Hike & Market Crash - part 3

Since 2022, the chief investment strategist at BofA has held a bearish outlook on US equities. He accurately predicted that the Federal Reserve would aggressively increase interest rates, causing the market to experience a decline in 20222. He stood out from all the mediocre fund managers such as Cathie Wood,

Federal Reserve Possibly Opts for a Pause in Rate Hikes

Despite speculation about potential pause or rate cuts in response to recent bank collapses, the Federal Reserve ultimately decided to proceed with a 25bps rate hike at their May 3 meeting. They mentioned that they no longer saw the need for "additional policy tightening." That's a

The U.S. Debt Ceiling debate continues (part 2)

The debt ceiling debate is starting to become increasingly worrying. The debt ceiling can have far-reaching implications for the global economy. With each passing day, the probability of a violation rise, as well as the potential economic damage it can bring. Please read the previous article about the debt ceiling

Bitcoin $100k By The End of 2024 - Standard Charted Report PDF Download

This morning I saw a report from Standard Charted that Bitcoin could hit $100k by the end of 2023. It seems to have gotten some traction on Twitter. I also posted the report today in Discord before I noticed the tweet from @NewsInSmoll Does $BTC ever reach $100,000? What

The U.S. Debt Ceiling & USDJPY opportunity

This time we are left to focus on 1Q2023 US GDP & core PCE inflation figures and the debt ceiling debates (again). Also, the Federal Reserve is entering a blackout period ahead of the anticipated rate meeting on May 3rd, 2023. A blackout period for the Federal Reserve is a

Crypto/Digital Assets flow

Last month (March), with the banking crisis/turmoil and uncertainty in the air, investors turned to digital assets to diversify and hedge their investments. Partly thanks to the lower-than-anticipated terminal target rate, digital assets have seen price appreciations in the same time frame. The terminal target rate is the final

Strategize: Prepare For A Last Rate Hike & Market Crash - part 2

The current banking crisis has resulted in uncertainty, prompting investors to discuss the responsibility of an Armageddon of Commercial Real Estate loans. Growing anxiety that commercial real estate may become this economic cycle's subprime. I covered Commercial Real Estate in a previous large newsletter here which you can

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Our McDonald's Wagecuck backup plan is canceled

McDonald's, the world's largest fast-food chain, is restructuring with layoffs, pay cuts, office closures, and leadership changes. This month (April 2023), McDonald's began implementing its January 2023 strategy to streamline operations and cut costs. The restructuring will affect hundreds of employees, vendors, and partners.

Power Struggle: Russia and the US Clashing Over Ukraine and Baltic States

Europe has been brought to the verge of a serious confrontation due to recent developments, which have been triggered by Russia's aggressive reaction to foreign policy and the dollar's weaponization. The United States has historically endeavored to extend its sphere of influence within Europe, specifically focusing

zkRollups airdrop - March 31 -2023

Alright, now we've played the Arbitrum narrative and successfully got at least $1000 worth of airdrops due to the previous newsletters. It's time to flip into the new narrative and get a cheap entry ticket into the zkRollup technology. Now let's cover the project.

Strategize: Prepare For A Last Rate Hike & Market Crash

The current hiking cycle started in 2022, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to unprecedented levels, putting immense pressure on the balance sheets of many banks, especially those relying on regional lending. As their bond portfolio deteriorates, they will face insolvency & most likely default on their obligations to

Weekly Calendar: Key data & events - March 27, 2023

This weekly calendar presents a comprehensive overview of the upcoming macroeconomic landscape, summarizing important data releases, upcoming debt auctions, and soon-to-be-released events of global significance. Weekly calendar Monday 27 Match * European Central Bank Executive Board Member Elderson will be speaking at the 30th anniversary * ECB Executive Board Member Sabine Schnabel

FOMC - March 22 2023

Markets are on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce following their biggest meeting in many years. The Federal Reserve will have to make a hard choice that might have big effect on the banking system. In recent months, rapid

Swiss Government Brokers' "Shotgun Wedding" for Credit Suisse & UBS

The Swiss government is faced with a difficult decision. Two financial giants, Credit Suisse (CS) and UBS, operate in the same country, Switzerland. The recent turmoil in global financial markets was triggered by two central US banks' collapse last week (Silicon Valley bank & Silvergate) The Swiss government intervened

Signposts triggers - March 17, 2023

As people start to pull their money out of banks or "deposit outflows" start to happen, things will get tough for them. Deposits outflows refer to this context when a large amount of money is withdrawn from banks and or other institutions or a decrease in the total

Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability (PDF)

I shared this document on March 6, 2023, with the Elite members of this newsletter. A group of ~38 people decided to buy a premium membership when I launched the premium service of this blog. There was no extra cost for an elite membership, and it was a reward for

Market newsletter March 16 - 2023

The FX markets are on edge, as jittery as 2 cups of coffee & an Adderall since the revelation overnight that Credit Suisse has tapped into a Swiss National Bank facility borrowing CHF50bn ($57.3 billion) through a Covered Loan Facility and a short-term liquidity facility, both collateralized by "

Market Research & newsletter - March 12, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, and many wondered how this disaster could have happened. We would expect that the "smart money" uses cutting-edge systems and algorithms to minimize its risk. After all, Silicon Valley Bank was close to the epicenter of tech innovation. I mean, after all, Silicon Valley

Market Research & NFT airdrop: Mar 10 - 2023

On March 8th, Federal Reserve Chair testified in the second round and clarified that he had not decided whether the next rate hike would be 25 bps or 50 bps. Before deciding, he also clarified that he would look at the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), payrolls, and

Market Newsletter Week 10 2023

The US equities markets had a roller coaster ride last week. Big upswings in the US equities markets Monday and a decent move lower in the US yields (led by the back end). However, the market took a big downturn on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Friday, however, the markets reversed

Market newsletter Feb 23 - 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the February 1 meeting highlighted an interesting pattern of hawkishness within the board. The members ultimately decided on the smaller rate hikes after debating between a 25 bps and a 50 bps rate hike. To bring inflation back to the 2% target,

Return of 50 cent VIX trader - Feb 17 2023

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a mysterious trader known for making big bets in the options market made a comeback. The trader paid $0.50 each for 100k call options worth $5 million on Tuesday and another 500k contracts worth $2.6 million on Wednesday, betting on the VIX. Source: https:

Market newsletter Feb 9 - 2023

This week market participants were on the edge of their seats as Jerome Powell took the stage at the Economic Club of Washington and began to speak. While the markets had interpreted his FOMC post-meeting conference last Wednesday as dovish, many wondered if they would take a hawkish stand after

Market newsletter Feb 3- 2023

This week we got a surprise from the two powerful banks, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Jerome Powell gave some indications towards dovish expectations. Still, the European Central Banks could not communicate effectively, so the EUR/USD may likely struggle a bit the break higher before the

Market newsletter Feb 2 - 2023

The market is challenging the Federal Reserve once getting. Aligned with market expectations and discussed in the last newsletter, the Federal Reserve did another rate by 25 basis points instead of their previous aggressive rate hikes. So it seems like the Federal Reserve decided to slow down the tightening pace

Market newsletter Jan 30 - 2023

As the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) moves closer to its rate-hiking cycle, they will likely hike rates by another 25 basis points instead of their past aggressive 50 & 75 bps. The Federal Reserve won't signal the end of the tightening cycle quite yet

Market Research Jan 25- 2023

This morning at the time of writing, overall stock sentiment is negative due to a downbeat in the US session yesterday and Microsoft's weaker-than-expected sales report. The S&P500 and Nasdaq closed lower yesterday, and the negative sentiment got compounded by Microsoft's sales report. Asia

Market Research Jan 20 - 2023

Let's start, as mentioned in my tweets on January 15. On January 20th there's $2.7 trillion of options will expire in the US-listed options market. So today's expiry of single stock options and index/ETF options. A total of $797 billion of single

Market Research January 10 - 2023

Brexit Talks - BoE Expects Inflation to Remain High Into 2024 Investors have been closely watching the latest developments in Brexit recently, as the U.K. continues to grapple with its issues tied to the event. The mini-Budget failed, creating concerns about inflation, strike action, food supply, and a UK-specific

Fire in the UK Real Estate Theater: Blackstone's Multi-Billion Dollar Funds

As rising inflation and economic concerns cause a decrease in values, wealthy investors are withdrawing their money from multibillion-dollar real estate funds. So, in response to these redemptions, US fund manager BlackRock has announced that it would delay processing redemption requests in its £3.5 billion ($4.2 billion) UK

Russia: Deploying Unstoppable Hypersonic Zircon Missiles

Russian President Vladimir Putin is aggressively posturing toward the West in reaction to the escalating situation in Ukraine. Putin is deploying a warship equipped with hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles to signal to the West that he would react with force if required. I assume this is a signal that Russia

Japan & Russia at a Cross-Roads: Tensions Rise amid Peace Treaty Talks "Impossible"

Russia-Japan Peace Treaty Talks Remain "Impossible" - Tensions Continue to Escalate The Kremlin has recently announced that Japan's recent expressions of anti-Russian sentiment have made it impossible to resume talks surrounding a potential peace treaty. Specifically, a senior Russian foreign ministry official quoted in TASS has

Angela Merkel Admits: The West Used Deceptive Tactics In The Minsk Agreements To Set Up Ukraine For War.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel recently admitted that the Minsk Agreements, a set of agreements signed seven years ago to resolve the Ukraine conflict, were nothing more than a "deceptive political ploy." This admission has led many to question her role in the conflict and whether she

"G7 of the East" - Changing the Global Monetary System

Zoltan Pozsar is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. He's a recognized expert on global macroeconomic and financial market trends and has written extensively on global imbalances, U.S. monetary policy, and the global economy. He's the Director of Credit Strategy at Credit Suisse and a Visiting

Market Research & airdrop December 23 - 2022

Of course, the jobless claims were released, proving that the US economy is having a hard time. The labor market is still weak based on the stagnant data we have seen over the last few months. The situation between equity prices and bond yields has been under pressure since the

Market Research & airdrop December 5 - 2022

The first week of December is usually a quiet market period; however, this year, we are preparing for the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve meeting. Broadly, the expectations are that CPI will continue to improve and that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by only

Market Research & Arbitrum airdrop, December 1 - 2022

Mortgage application data indicates fewer people are applying for mortgages, even though "mortgage rates" have fallen recently. That should serve as a warning to the Federal Reserve that its program of lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy may not work as well as it has in the

Market insight & crypto airdrops, October 27, 2022

The relief was felt yesterday because the market had been becoming increasingly overbought in the past few weeks. The rise in the S&P futures despite the rise in US 10yr rates suggests that the market is becoming overbought. That is because rising rates typically indicate a tightening of

Market insight, August 11, 2022

The lower-than-expected inflation rate reported yesterday boosted asset prices across the board, with huge gains seen in sectors underperforming in recent weeks. In the financial markets, a lower-than-expected inflation rate often leads to a rally in asset prices. That is because investors feel that lower inflation will lead to higher

Market insight, July 30 2022

It seems that market participants were prematurely bearish in anticipation of the FOMC. A similar situation like in June. The market was potentially pricing in a worst-case scenario, and a 75bps would be "dovish" compared to the hypothetical 100bps hike. It caught many market participants off-guard, and the

Market insight, July 19, 2022

With options expiration in the rearview mirror, there are few critical events before the end-of-month rebalance. When investors rebalance, they readjust their portfolio weightings to put them back in line with their desired asset allocation. Given the outperformance of equities markets over fixed income MTD, rebalancing is probably a minor

Market insight, July 18, 2022

With another hotter-than-expected CPI inflation reading last week, On July 15th, it seemed that a market sell-off similar to June's was possible. However, Fed Governor Waller's suggestion that 75 basis points were more plausible than 100 basis points acted as a catalyst for dealers to bring

Market Insight July 6, 2022

The first half of 2022 has passed and has been the worst start to equities markets in the last fifty years. What started in January as tax selling has turned into another horrible year but this time not only with a pandemic but also inflation, hostile monetary policies, war, the

Market insight, June 24, 2022

Yesterday, the equity options markets were in negative gamma territory again, the options market is signaling that downside risk is greater than upside risk. Nonetheless, the range of strikes that are impacting the market is forming a corridor around the present level, which is analogous to a "positive gamma

Market insight June 21, 2022

On Friday, June 17, the quadruple watching hour ended. There was some risk on a "fat left fail," which I mentioned, but I had a bias that there would be a squeeze on Monday/Tuesday. Market insight - Quadruple witching - June 17, 2022Quadruple witching/ Quad expiry. In

Market insight - Quadruple witching - June 17, 2022

Today is the day Quadruple witching/ Quad expiry Quadruple witching/ Quad expiry is the day when four different options contracts simultaneously There are four different types of options that can expire on quad expiry stock options, index options, futures options, and commodity options. All of these options contracts expire at

Market insight June 14

After yesterday's catastrophic meltdown, normally, I would assume a small pause. The situation is that the Federal Reserve will announce a new rate on Wednesday, and the market had to readjust its expectations for what the Fed may do in light of the recent CPI report. Previously, there

Market insight June 13, 2022

The central bankers have managed to shock the markets out of their complacency, and it is hard to estimate how severely they aim to continue torturing us. From the equities markets, shockwaves are sent to the cryptocurrency markets. Central bankers have caught markets off guard, and it is no longer

Market Insight June 12

The ECB is the European Central Bank, and Lagarde is the current President. The ECB can set interest rates for the Eurozone, and Lagarde's comments suggested that the ECB is planning on hiking rates soon to combat energy-driven inflation. That is not an unprecedented decision, as the ECB

Market insight June 7

SPX500 Recently, the market has had low realized volatility, indicating that it has not changed as much as in the past. Despite considerable intraday volatility, meaning that there is a great deal of fluctuation throughout the day, this is the case. The SPX500 $4000 strike is no longer the dominant

Market insight June 6, 2022

Analyzing the market and the market dynamics has been difficult today and to wrap my head around it. The recent employment report was stronger than anticipated. That leads to concerns that the Federal Reserve may become more interventionist soon. So let's start off. Many stocks have performed poorly,

Market insight June 3, 2022

‌             ‌ Volatility Targeting Strategies Volatility is the most prevalent measure of a stock's risk. The volatility targeting strategy is a method for managing a portfolio's exposure such that its volatility is as near as feasible to the target value. In other words, the strategy is used to

Market insight June 2, 2022

Following warnings from Jamie Dimon, markets immediately returned despite an early rally. Subscribe to read | Financial TimesNews, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publicationFinancial TimesJoshua Franklin This emphasized the market's riskiness and the negative gamma that has been afflicting it. This market

Market insight May 31, 2022

Bearish traders have suffered recently as sharp equity gains have erased their gains! Similarly, bullish traders/funds are still struggling as they have incurred losses year-to-date. The neutralization of rebalancing flows has almost been completed. When the inflows and outflows of a certain asset are equal, the rebalancing flows are

Market insight May 30, 2022

Despite weak economic data, the week of options expiration has been marked by solid gains, with rebalancing flows propelling markets higher. However, intraday volatility should still be anticipated since Gamma is negative. Negative Gamma, in this case, refers to the decrease in the value of an option as the underlying

Market insight May 27, 2022

Fresh reminder, the liquidity is weak because of the upcoming holiday weekend when US equities markets will be closed on Monday. Thus, prices may display extreme volatility. Low liquidity suggests few buyers and sellers in the market, which may contribute to more volatility since prices might fluctuate more drastically. That

Market insight May 26 2022

SPX500 Call options were added at the 4100 and 4200 strikes. This has the effect of flattening out the gamma curve above 4200, which suggests that the market may lose steam if it rallies into 4200. The gamma curve represents the rate of change of an option's delta.

Market insight May 25, 2022

SPX500 The market's low point was $3880. That was expected, with a strong bounce, as I mentioned in my previous blog post yesterday. Market view May 24, 2022During the week of June 13-17, there are a substantial open interest in VIX (Volatility Index) options contracts that expire. Federal

Market view May 24, 2022

During the week of June 13-17, there are a substantial open interest in VIX (Volatility Index) options contracts that expire. Federal Reserve will be meeting on June 15th, which could add to the volatility as traders try to protect their positions before the meeting. There's a lot of

Market view May 23, 2022 (Second post today)

The SPX500 is currently trading at $3878 On Friday, May 20 after OPEX, a lot of options expired. Additionally, there was a sharp move higher into the close on Friday. That was possibly an opportunity for short-covering for some market participants. This Gamma curve (a measure of the change in

Market view May 23, 2022

The markets seem oversold, ARK (with all their tech stocks from which their index is composed) has stopped going down, and bonds are now helping. Vol control strategies have been out since March 20 OPEX expiration and waiting to get back in. Vol control strategies are investment strategies that attempt

Market view May 20, 2022 (OPEX)

The SPX500 supported our $3,900.00 region, produced by the "strike price" with the largest net-negative gamma. Gamma is a measure of the rate of change of an option's delta in relation to the underlying asset. In general, the greater the gamma of an option,

Market view May 19, 2022

Futures for the SPX500 have fallen to $3882, up from overnight lows of $3850. This indicates that the market is down from its previous peak but up from its overnight low. The VIX is pricing daily SPX500 changes of 2%, which indicates that there is still a great deal of

The market view May 18, 2022

In recent weeks, volatility in the stock market has been elevated as investors and traders hedge against potential risks associated with the Federal Reserve and an economic slowdown. The initial concerns began with worries over inflation and growth but have since shifted to fears that the Fed's monetary

Market view: May 17/18

Friday, May 20 seems to be a big "put option" expiry date. Large open interest in SPY options at $400, with more put options than call options at this strike. On Friday, the expiration of these options could provide a tailwind for markets. +30% total SPX500 gamma expires

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