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Heads I Win, Tails I Trim: Gold Trim to Win
Gold has been the undisputed king of the 'Short USD'/diversification in recent months. When everyone's already at the party, sometimes it's time to check the exits.
After a monster run driven by everything from yield compression to geopolitical fear, gold is now flashing
Handcuffed perpetual optimism
The Trump tariff "step-downs" may have taken the edge off of the worst-case trade war scenarios. Between the Treasury Bessent floating interventionist tools (including the "not-so-subtle nod to buybacks) and Waller softening up the Federal Reserve tone, there's a clear effort to engineer a sentiment
Fed unwilling to mop up the consequences of Trump tariffs
Fed Chair Powell is playing the adult and reminding the public that tariffs aren't just headlines. Powell is flagging the obvious, yet overlooked by many. Tariffs are inflationary. They act like a tax on imports, driving up prices for consumers, which feeds into the CPI.
At the same